TotalEnergies Provides Q1 2025 Trading Update
Why we think this is neutral
The trading update from TotalEnergies provides a mixed picture, with some positive indicators like higher hydrocarbon production and better pricing environment, but also signs of headwinds in the Refining & Chemicals and Marketing & Services segments. Without clear guidance on full-year profit, revenue, and cash flow, it's difficult to determine the overall sentiment. The company appears to be navigating through a challenging market environment, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain.
Key Points
- Hydrocarbon production expected at high end of quarterly guidance range, up nearly 4% year-on-year
- Integrated Power results expected between $450 million and $500 million, similar to Q2 and Q3 2024
- Refining & Chemicals results expected in same range as Q4 2024, offset by lower petrochemicals and biofuels margins in Europe
- Marketing & Services results expected in line with Q1 2024 due to seasonality
- Working capital expected to increase by $4 to $5 billion, in line with seasonal effects
Summary
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) has provided a trading update for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a mixed performance. While the company expects hydrocarbon production to be at the high end of its quarterly guidance range, up nearly 4% compared to the same period last year, the Integrated Power and Refining & Chemicals segments are facing some challenges. Refining & Chemicals results are expected to be in line with the previous quarter, but offset by lower petrochemicals and biofuels margins in Europe due to overcapacities. Marketing & Services results are also expected to be in line with the first quarter of 2024, reflecting the seasonality of the business. The company's cash flow is expected to be close to $600 million, in line with the annual guidance.